New report shows schools reopening is closely tied to societal activity

Using data from King County, IDM used their agent-based model, Covasim, to simulate different scenarios and strategies for reopening schools alongside varying levels of community activity and mobility outside schools. Simulating the first three months of school term (September 1 – December 1), the report found King County schools may be able to reopen without sustained epidemic growth, but only with several countermeasures in place and if community-wide COVID-19 transmission is low. Without any countermeasures, the number of new COVID-19 cases in the county could double over the three-month period.

“Reopening schools cannot be considered in isolation – what happens outside of schools is as important as what happens inside of schools,” said Lacy Fehrenbach, DOH’s deputy secretary of health for the COVID-19 response. “The most important step we can take to reopen schools this fall is to come together to reduce spread of the virus in our communities and statewide.”

Grouping students by age, physical distancing, wearing masks and safe hygiene may be able to reduce the impact of school reopenings on transmission, but how much of an impact these measures have will depend on the level of COVID-19 transmission outside of schools. Even with countermeasures, students and staff would need to be screened for symptoms daily and both work and community mobility would need to stay below a certain threshold. “Every part of our society is connected when it comes to COVID-19,” said Dr. Jeff Duchin, health officer for Public Health – Seattle & King County. “How well we control transmission in workplaces, businesses, recreation, families and social networks are related and all impact whether we can safely reopen schools.”